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Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?

Subject: Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?
From: "John Fleming" <johntwrl -at- hotmail -dot- com>
To: "TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com>
Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2003 02:33:07 +0000


On Tue, 21 Jan 2003 17:33:18 -0600 (CST), while chained to a desk in the scriptorium, huey -at- interaccess -dot- com ("Gary S. Callison") wrote:

$There is a right answer. It's in the rec.puzzles FAQ $(<http://mneylon.masemware.com/puzzles/faq.txt> and scroll down to
$question 2.4) and comes back like a bad penny every once-a-year or so in
$the usenet newsgroup alt.fan.cecil-adams.

I took a look at the FAQ, and if truth be told, I don't follow their line of reasoning as to why it is advantageous to switch.

While it is true that your probablility of being wrong on the first guess is 2/3, that doesn't change the identity of the correct door when it is time to make the second pick. The only thing that changes is this. For the second pick, you have two doors--each of which has a 1/2 probability of being right.

Switching doors does not affect that probability.

Statistically, there is no benefit to switching doors.

As to why a potential employer might ask for an answer to that in a "help wanted" ad, I'm guessing there is a psychological reason.

Perhaps they are determining which applicants might change their minds about a course of action where there is no evidence to suggest such a change is necessary or desirable.

Based purely on probabilities, there is no reason to change the original selection. (If Monty Hall has a lousy poker face, then maybe there is, but there is nothing in the puzzle to suggest this is the case.)

If you really want to work there, the correct answer hinges upon the type of person they are looking for--willing to stay the course unless there is evidence to suggest a change vs. switching for no apparent reason.

If I were answering the job ad, I would not change my door selection. When my mind is made up, I tend to stick to my guns. I'd be a lousy fit in a shop where they expect me to toe the flavor of the month when it comes to making decisions.

--
John Fleming
Technical Writer
Edmonton, Canada

Please respond to the group. My address is set to reject e-mail from senders not in my address book.




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