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Subject:Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"? From:SteveFJong -at- aol -dot- com To:"TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com> Date:Wed, 22 Jan 2003 07:55:31 EST
John Fleming <johntwrl -at- hotmail -dot- com> wrote:
>> As a couple of us have pointed out, the logic behind the answer posted in
>> the FAQ is in error.
>> The interviewee could give the interviewer the FAQ answer and then explain
>> *why* the answer in the FAQ is wrong.
>> In this case, the underlying probability theory is something many of us
>> learned in high school math, so it's not really that complicated.
The FAQ is not in error. Your chances of winning the prize are 1 in 3 if you
stick, 2 in 3 if you switch.
This is an infamous little probability exercise that confounds even trained
mathematicians.
The best possible answer for an interviewee is "I've seen this before. I
didn't believe the answer at first, so I wrote a simulation program, which
demonstrates that you should switch doors."
-- Steve (who did)
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