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Subject:RE: Bubble Your Pleasure, Bubble Your Fun From:"Mark Baker" <mbaker -at- ca -dot- stilo -dot- com> To:"TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com> Date:Mon, 9 Jun 2003 10:32:03 -0400
Jim Shaeffer wrote
> Consumer oriented technical documents that will be needed in the near
> future:
>
> - How to conduct and interpret DNA tests you administer in your own home.
> - How to prepare genetically customized food for each member of your
> family.
> - Car manuals for vehicles that run on alternative fuels.
> - Manuals for digital video recorders and timeshifters like TIVO.
> - Instructions for downloading and playing movies (legally).
> - How to clean and store the cable that connects directly from the
> computer into the implant in your brain.
>
> And that's just the beginning of the list.
Even granting your technological optimism, Jim. None of these things are
radically different in kind from things people do today.
* Self diagnostic products are common.
* Cooking is common
* Cars have been running on various alternate fuels for years
* DVR is little different from VCR
* People download movies today. The instructions are "Click here to
download"
* People have been cleaning and storing stuff for centuries.
Nothing in your list is remotely foreign to our current user experience of
technology. Yes they will need documents, but those requirements will be
modest. And most of these products will come from a few established
technology leaders, not from dozens of small startups, meaning fewer
distinct products, fewer distinct documents, and fewer distinct tech writing
jobs.
> Also, the technology adoption life cycle assures us that there will always
> be new and unfamiliar products coming down the pipeline at us.
Technology adoption, like most other things, exists in a state of punctuated
equilibrium. The question isn't whether innovation will continue, of course
it will. The question is whether is will continue to saturate the
home/office market with true novelties the way it did in the 80's and 90's.
What seems more likely is that, for the next several years at least, we will
be working out the implications of the technologies we have now, a
contention supported rather then refuted by your list above.
---
Mark Baker
Senior Technical Writer
Stilo Corporation
1900 City Park Drive, Suite 504 , Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, K1J 1A3
Phone: 613-745-4242, Fax: 613-745-5560
Email mbaker -at- ca -dot- stilo -dot- com
Web: http://www.stilo.com
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