Re: Proposals

[Mark Dando <danmcc -at- OZEMAIL -dot- COM -dot- AU>]

John:

I didn't say or imply that "if 10 companies respond, then you have a 10%
chance", but was talking about average success rates.

A major client of mine operates in the network systems integration market
in Australia. Typically, purchasing in this market by major private and
public sector corporations involves a multi-stage tender process whereby a
shortlist of suppliers are invited to respond to the formal tender.

In identifiable markets segments it is possible (and in fact it is done) to
calculate the average number in a shortlist. If three, for example, the
average strike rate for suppliers would be 33%. Suppliers who significantly
exceed that rate are generally happy with their performance, and suppliers
who don't achieve that rate over a period usually withdraw from  the market.

Mark Dando
Dando McCredie Pty Ltd
danmcc -at- ozemail -dot- com -dot- au
Leura NSW
Australia

At 09:29 AM 5/22/98 -0400, you wrote:
>Mark...
>
>That's such an extreme simplification as to make it almost
>incorrect...infact, sometimes the reverse is true.
>
>If two or three companies submit a response, then "maybe" this has some
>semblance to reality.  However, by extension to your logic, if 10
>companies respond, then you have a 10% chance. In reality, when a
>company get's that many responses, or any number that may be bigger than
>they are comfortable analyzing, they will only give a passing glance at
>the no-name submissions, get it to a manageable number (3-4), then
>perform the same depth of analysis as if they only received those three
>in the first place.
>
>In addition, there are too many other factors that contribute to make
>your percentage statistically inappropriate.