Re: Re. chat: Y2k clarification

[Marsha Kamish <MKamish -at- STEWART -dot- COM>]

Posted for Geoff (with thanks):

Marsha Kamish quoted someone else as having observed that <<...if any
appliances in your house balk when we hit the year 2000, just reset
the date to 1980.  That seems to be the year that Bill Gates or maybe
someone else in computer history used as a basis for calculating
years.>>

Not true. Most computer clocks use 1900 as the basis year, and given
that many programmers used only two digits to conserve memory, the
clock is going to roll over back to 1900 as soon as 1999 (99 to the
program) becomes 2000 (00). _Byte_ and _PC Magazine_ published
excellent, comprehensive, relatively nontechnical cover stories on the
topic towards the fall of last year; the October issue of _Popular
Science_ has an even less technical discussion of the issue.

<<Why would my toaster oven 1) have a chip in it and 2) a line of code
in that chip with a date field?>>

It's a good bet that it doesn't, unless you can program your toaster
oven (like you'd do with a VCR) to either (i) display the date and
time or (ii) turn on at 6 AM next Saturday to bake your muffins while
you shower.

<<Someone told me that my car's computer might go nuts and
discombobulate the electrical system.  Same question - why would it?>>

Same answer as with the toaster oven, minus the muffins. <g> The
automakers (according to _Popular Science_) have found no end of
problems with their manufacturing lines (robots, stamping machines,
etc.), but essentially no problems with the electronics embedded in
their vehicles.

Y2K will undoubtedly cause disruptions, some potentially major (e.g.,
the electrical utilities in the U.S. are woefully unprepared according
to PC Mag, but not so badly off according to Pop Sci.).  I personally
plan to stay far away from airports Dec. 31, 1999/Jan.1, 2000 because
the air traffic control system is increasingly old and creaky, and
their Y2K efforts have been questionable based on some of what I've
read and a documentary a few years back on _Nova_... but don't quote
me on this, as I'm working from second hand info. Ditto for hospitals
and medical devices, as a colleague in the insurance industry told me
(off the record) that he considers the hospitals to be almost entirely
unprepared; if you have any complex procedures scheduled, you might
want to rebook them for a few weeks later and let someone else be the
guinea pig.

You can probably expect the greatest problems with small companies
that think this is someone else's problem (if they're even aware of it
at all), or big companies that haven't verified whether their
subcontractors are compliant and that subsequently get felled by the
domino effect when one or more of their small suppliers goes down
temporarily. (IBM Canada, quoted in _The Computer Paper_, reported
that this will be a serious problem for them, even though they
consider themselves largely Y2K compliant.) It's probably a good idea
to have some spare cash around the house because even if the bank
machines keep functioning (which is likely), a lot of people are going
to panic and try to withdraw money at the last moment. Keeping paper
copies of your financial records would seem to be a reasonable
precaution, particularly if you're American (since your banks tend to
be smaller and thus more variable in their Y2K preparations than
Canadian banks). Keeping a few days worth of bottled water handy might
be helpful in some cities, as the water supply is frequently mentioned
as a potential problem. Ditto for food because many suppliers
apparently use some form of "just in time" distribution system that
would be vulnerable. But even though the Canadian government (at
least) has put the army on standby for that weekend, Y2K is not going
to be the collapse of civilisation... more like a moderately bad
hurricane, if that.
--Geoff Hart @8^{)}
geoff-h -at- mtl -dot- feric -dot- ca

"Patience comes to those who wait."--Anon.



Marsha G. Kamish, MA
Documentation Specialist
Landata Systems, Inc.
Houston, Texas
mkamish -at- stewart -dot- com
713-479-2571

The opinions expressed are mine and not necessarily representative of
Landata Systems, Inc.


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