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Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?

Subject: Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?
From: Jan Henning <henning -at- r-l -dot- de>
To: "TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com>
Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2003 09:31:12 +0100

I think one could do such a simulation in
Excel using the RAND() function, but I haven't worked
out the details.

That's overkill. You can do it with pen and paper. Or with pixels:

Let's call the door behind which the prize is hidden door A. Then you have the following probabilities for your first choice:

A 1/3
B 1/3
C 1/3

Depending on your first choice, the host now opens a door. Wehn you chose door A, he has two equally likely possibilities of which door to open; if you chose B or C, there is only one door that he can open:

1st host
choice opens
-----------------
A 1/3 B 1/6
C 1/6
B 1/3 C 1/3
C 1/3 B 1/3

Now we can see what happens if you switch or stay:

1st host
choice opens switch stay
---------------------------------
A 1/3 B 1/6 lose win
C 1/6 lose win
B 1/3 C 1/3 win lose
C 1/3 B 1/3 win lose

Regards
Jan Henning


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Jan Henning
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Am Schlossberg 14, D-82547 Eurasburg, Germany

Phone: +49 700 0200 0700, Fax: +49 8179 9307-12
E-Mail: henning -at- r-l -dot- de, Web: www.r-l.de
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References:
Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?: From: Lois Patterson

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