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Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?

Subject: Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?
From: Jan Henning <henning -at- r-l -dot- de>
To: "TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com>
Date: Wed, 22 Jan 2003 18:40:50 +0100

You Choose Monty Shows Stay Change
A B W L
C W L
B C L W
C B L W


Always staying with your choice or always changing simply results in 50/50 odds.

No it doesn't, because every line does not have the same probability: Lines 1 and 2 each occur with a probability of 1/6 each, lines 3 and 4 with a probability of 1/3 each. (It it were otherwise, you'd have a chance of 50% of picking the right door - door A - in the first try. Neat trick, if you can manage it ;-)

Folks, many smart people have thought about this problem and come to the same answer as the one in the FAQ. All arguments have been presented on this list. If you think that that answer is wrong, the likelihood is very great that you didn't properly consider some aspect of the problem as opposed to that you may have found a hitherto undiscovered flaw in the argument.

And with that, may I quote a famous techwhirler: "Back to work you!" :-)

Regards
Jan Henning

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References:
Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?: From: eric . dunn

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