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Subject:RE: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"? From:"Sella Rush" <srush -at- MusicNet -dot- com> To:"TECHWR-L" <techwr-l -at- lists -dot- raycomm -dot- com> Date:Wed, 22 Jan 2003 10:43:18 -0800
My head exploded this morning, so I have now finally seen the light on the Monty question. As a tech writing tie in, I'd like to commend David's approach as the one that helped me reconcile with what seemed so wrong. His explanation of Monty imparting information that improves the odds made the most sense to my gut, which was refusing to comply with my brain. Thanks David!
Sella Rush
Tech Writer III
MusicNet
(206) 269-6115 Direct
srush -at- musicnet -dot- com
> -----Original Message-----
> From: David Purdue [mailto:dp18367 -at- iplanet -dot- com]
> Sent: Tuesday, January 21, 2003 10:10 PM
> To: TECHWR-L
> Subject: Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?
>
>
>
> Your assumption that the two events (1st choice of door and
> 2nd choice of door) are independant is a fallacy. While there
> is no causative link between the events, you have more information
> to hand when you make the second choice than when you make the
> first. You also assume that the second choice is random rather
> than directed (if you made the 2nd choice at random, then I
> agree the chance would be 50-50, but Monty lets you make a
> decision based on info to hand, so you can do better).
>
> What you are forgetting is that Monty knows something that you
> don't (he knows where the prize is). When he opens the door
> that has the joint property of not being one you picked and not
> having the prize HE HAS GIVEN SOME OF THE INFORMATION HE HAS!
>
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