Re: Are you a "Mental Gymnast"?

[Alan Bucher <bucherino -at- yahoo -dot- com>]

> > I think one could do such a simulation in
> > Excel using the RAND() function, but I haven't worked
> > out the details.

In the hopes of settling this debate, I'll list several web
sites that provide simulations that empirically prove the answer
described in the FAQ. We can debate logic forever, but you can't
dispute the numbers.

The most thorough is this one:

http://math.ucsd.edu/~anistat/chi-an/MonteHallParadox.html

(Click "Always Switch" or "Never Switch" to choose how you want
to play. Type a number, then click Go. And note the differences
when you change whether the host knows or doesn't know. You
should switch if he knows, but it becomes 50-50 if he doesn't
know.)

Or, you can play the game yourself here:
http://www.stat.sc.edu/~west/javahtml/LetsMakeaDeal.html

or here: 
http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/Monty/monty.html

or here:
http://people.hofstra.edu/staff/steven_r_costenoble/MontyHall/MontyHallSim.html

AB


> > I think one could do such a simulation in
> > Excel using the RAND() function, but I haven't worked
> > out the details.

> That's overkill. You can do it with pen and paper. >

Or with pixels: [snip]

Yes, you're providing the proof that the solution is
correct, which is excellent. However, I was talking
about creating a simulation in Excel for people who
want to see an empirical demonstration of the Monty
Hall problem. Many people see the proof and disregard
it, as several posters have done in this thread, but
they might have a harder time dismissing a simulation.

(A matter of learning style, I guess.)



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